| player | deck |
|---|---|
| zhavier | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace |
| FrozenStorm | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire |
| charnel_mouse | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood |
| codexnewb | Miracle Grow |
| Bomber678 | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse |
| Nopethebard | MonoWhite |
| CarpeGuitarrem | MonoRed |
| Nekoatl | [Future/Past]/Peace |
| round | player1 | player2 | deck1 | deck2 | victor | victory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | codexnewb | FrozenStorm | Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 1 | zhavier | Nekoatl | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Future/Past]/Peace | zhavier | normal |
| 1 | Bomber678 | Nopethebard | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoWhite | Bomber678 | normal |
| 1 | CarpeGuitarrem | charnel_mouse | MonoRed | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | charnel_mouse | normal |
| 2 | FrozenStorm | zhavier | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 2 | charnel_mouse | Bomber678 | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | charnel_mouse | normal |
| 2 | Nekoatl | CarpeGuitarrem | [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoRed | CarpeGuitarrem | normal |
| 2 | Nopethebard | codexnewb | MonoWhite | Miracle Grow | codexnewb | normal |
| 3 | charnel_mouse | FrozenStorm | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 3 | Bomber678 | CarpeGuitarrem | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoRed | Bomber678 | normal |
| 3 | zhavier | codexnewb | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | Miracle Grow | codexnewb | normal |
| 3 | Nekoatl | Nopethebard | [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoWhite | Nekoatl | normal |
| 4 | FrozenStorm | Bomber678 | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 4 | codexnewb | charnel_mouse | Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | charnel_mouse | normal |
| 4 | CarpeGuitarrem | zhavier | MonoRed | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | zhavier | normal |
| 5 | FrozenStorm | Nekoatl | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future/Past]/Peace | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 5 | Bomber678 | codexnewb | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | codexnewb | normal |
| 5 | zhavier | charnel_mouse | [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | zhavier | normal |
| 6 | zhavier | FrozenStorm | [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | zhavier | normal |
| 6 | charnel_mouse | codexnewb | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | Miracle Grow | charnel_mouse | normal |
Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)
Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.
| D1 | D2 | matchup | fairness |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoRed | 0.499 | 0.999 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.495 | 0.991 |
| MonoWhite | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.507 | 0.985 |
| MonoRed | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.508 | 0.984 |
| Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.513 | 0.975 |
| MonoRed | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.477 | 0.955 |
| MonoWhite | MonoRed | 0.476 | 0.952 |
| MonoWhite | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.526 | 0.947 |
| MonoRed | MonoWhite | 0.471 | 0.943 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoRed | 0.535 | 0.931 |
| MonoWhite | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.459 | 0.918 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.452 | 0.904 |
| Miracle Grow | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.550 | 0.901 |
| Miracle Grow | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.446 | 0.892 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.441 | 0.882 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | MonoRed | 0.563 | 0.875 |
| MonoRed | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.570 | 0.859 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.575 | 0.851 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.576 | 0.848 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.578 | 0.844 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | Miracle Grow | 0.578 | 0.843 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.418 | 0.836 |
| Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.589 | 0.822 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.409 | 0.817 |
| Miracle Grow | MonoRed | 0.593 | 0.815 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.404 | 0.808 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.601 | 0.798 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.604 | 0.793 |
| MonoRed | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.608 | 0.784 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.610 | 0.781 |
| MonoWhite | Miracle Grow | 0.614 | 0.771 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | Miracle Grow | 0.617 | 0.766 |
| Miracle Grow | MonoWhite | 0.382 | 0.764 |
| MonoRed | Miracle Grow | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.374 | 0.747 |
| MonoWhite | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.372 | 0.744 |
| Miracle Grow | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.632 | 0.736 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | MonoWhite | 0.645 | 0.710 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | Miracle Grow | 0.650 | 0.701 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.654 | 0.693 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | Miracle Grow | 0.657 | 0.687 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.657 | 0.687 |
| MonoRed | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.658 | 0.684 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | Miracle Grow | 0.660 | 0.681 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.333 | 0.666 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | MonoWhite | 0.671 | 0.657 |
| MonoWhite | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.677 | 0.646 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | MonoRed | 0.680 | 0.640 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.681 | 0.637 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoWhite | 0.714 | 0.571 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | MonoWhite | 0.725 | 0.551 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.738 | 0.524 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.742 | 0.516 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoWhite | 0.746 | 0.507 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | MonoRed | 0.747 | 0.506 |
Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.
Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).
| Player | Win probability |
|---|---|
| P1 | 0.57 |
| P2 | 0.43 |
| Both | 0.50 |
| Player | Win probability |
|---|---|
| P1 | 0.514 |
| P2 | 0.486 |
| Both | 0.500 |
| Deck | P1 | P2 | Both |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.351 | 0.206 | 0.402 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.184 | 0.104 | 0.135 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.113 | 0.124 | 0.126 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.081 | 0.097 | 0.102 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.042 | 0.239 | 0.101 |
| Miracle Grow | 0.094 | 0.115 | 0.068 |
| MonoWhite | 0.063 | 0.057 | 0.037 |
| MonoRed | 0.072 | 0.058 | 0.030 |
| Deck | P1 | P2 | Both |
|---|---|---|---|
| FrozenStorm | 0.499 | 0.390 | 0.534 |
| zhavier | 0.269 | 0.537 | 0.428 |
| charnel_mouse | 0.071 | 0.017 | 0.024 |
| Bomber678 | 0.087 | 0.028 | 0.011 |
| codexnewb | 0.068 | 0.025 | 0.003 |
| Nekoatl | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| CarpeGuitarrem | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Nopethebard | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| forecast | Brier score |
|---|---|
| always 5-5 | 0.250 |
| prior expected score | 0.189 |
| model | 0.172 |
| P1 | P2 | matchup | P1 wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bomber678 | Nopethebard | 0.946 | 1/1 |
| Nekoatl | Nopethebard | 0.889 | 1/1 |
| zhavier | codexnewb | 0.881 | 0/1 |
| FrozenStorm | Nekoatl | 0.867 | 1/1 |
| zhavier | Nekoatl | 0.811 | 1/1 |
| FrozenStorm | Bomber678 | 0.789 | 1/1 |
| zhavier | charnel_mouse | 0.759 | 1/1 |
| Bomber678 | CarpeGuitarrem | 0.726 | 1/1 |
| Bomber678 | codexnewb | 0.709 | 0/1 |
| charnel_mouse | codexnewb | 0.656 | 1/1 |
| Nekoatl | CarpeGuitarrem | 0.565 | 0/1 |
| FrozenStorm | zhavier | 0.518 | 1/1 |
| charnel_mouse | Bomber678 | 0.517 | 1/1 |
| codexnewb | charnel_mouse | 0.506 | 0/1 |
| zhavier | FrozenStorm | 0.464 | 1/1 |
| charnel_mouse | FrozenStorm | 0.384 | 0/1 |
| CarpeGuitarrem | charnel_mouse | 0.328 | 0/1 |
| codexnewb | FrozenStorm | 0.312 | 0/1 |
| Nopethebard | codexnewb | 0.258 | 0/1 |
| CarpeGuitarrem | zhavier | 0.208 | 0/1 |