Entrants
| player | deck |
|---|---|
| zhavier | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace |
| FrozenStorm | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire |
| charnel_mouse | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood |
| codexnewb | Miracle Grow |
| Bomber678 | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse |
| Nopethebard | MonoWhite |
| CarpeGuitarrem | MonoRed |
| Nekoatl | [Future/Past]/Peace |
Completed matches
| round | player1 | player2 | deck1 | deck2 | victor | victory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | codexnewb | FrozenStorm | Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 1 | zhavier | Nekoatl | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Future/Past]/Peace | zhavier | normal |
| 1 | Bomber678 | Nopethebard | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoWhite | Bomber678 | normal |
| 1 | CarpeGuitarrem | charnel_mouse | MonoRed | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | charnel_mouse | normal |
| 2 | FrozenStorm | zhavier | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 2 | charnel_mouse | Bomber678 | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | charnel_mouse | normal |
| 2 | Nekoatl | CarpeGuitarrem | [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoRed | CarpeGuitarrem | normal |
| 2 | Nopethebard | codexnewb | MonoWhite | Miracle Grow | codexnewb | normal |
| 3 | charnel_mouse | FrozenStorm | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 3 | Bomber678 | CarpeGuitarrem | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoRed | Bomber678 | normal |
| 3 | zhavier | codexnewb | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | Miracle Grow | codexnewb | normal |
| 3 | Nekoatl | Nopethebard | [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoWhite | Nekoatl | normal |
| 4 | FrozenStorm | Bomber678 | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 4 | codexnewb | charnel_mouse | Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | charnel_mouse | normal |
| 4 | CarpeGuitarrem | zhavier | MonoRed | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | zhavier | normal |
| 5 | FrozenStorm | Nekoatl | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future/Past]/Peace | FrozenStorm | normal |
| 5 | Bomber678 | codexnewb | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | codexnewb | normal |
| 5 | zhavier | charnel_mouse | [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | zhavier | normal |
| 6 | zhavier | FrozenStorm | [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | zhavier | normal |
| 6 | charnel_mouse | codexnewb | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | Miracle Grow | charnel_mouse | normal |
Matchup plots
Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)
Deck only
Overall
Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.
Matchup tables
Deck-only
| D1 | D2 | matchup | fairness |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.500 | 1.000 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoRed | 0.499 | 0.999 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.495 | 0.991 |
| MonoWhite | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.507 | 0.985 |
| MonoRed | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.508 | 0.984 |
| Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.513 | 0.975 |
| MonoRed | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.477 | 0.955 |
| MonoWhite | MonoRed | 0.476 | 0.952 |
| MonoWhite | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.526 | 0.947 |
| MonoRed | MonoWhite | 0.471 | 0.943 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoRed | 0.535 | 0.931 |
| MonoWhite | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.459 | 0.918 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.452 | 0.904 |
| Miracle Grow | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.550 | 0.901 |
| Miracle Grow | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.446 | 0.892 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.441 | 0.882 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | MonoRed | 0.563 | 0.875 |
| MonoRed | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.570 | 0.859 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.575 | 0.851 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.576 | 0.848 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.578 | 0.844 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | Miracle Grow | 0.578 | 0.843 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.418 | 0.836 |
| Miracle Grow | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.589 | 0.822 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.409 | 0.817 |
| Miracle Grow | MonoRed | 0.593 | 0.815 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.404 | 0.808 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.601 | 0.798 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.604 | 0.793 |
| MonoRed | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.608 | 0.784 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.610 | 0.781 |
| MonoWhite | Miracle Grow | 0.614 | 0.771 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | Miracle Grow | 0.617 | 0.766 |
| Miracle Grow | MonoWhite | 0.382 | 0.764 |
| MonoRed | Miracle Grow | 0.375 | 0.750 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.374 | 0.747 |
| MonoWhite | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.372 | 0.744 |
| Miracle Grow | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.632 | 0.736 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | MonoWhite | 0.645 | 0.710 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | Miracle Grow | 0.650 | 0.701 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.654 | 0.693 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | Miracle Grow | 0.657 | 0.687 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.657 | 0.687 |
| MonoRed | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.658 | 0.684 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | Miracle Grow | 0.660 | 0.681 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.333 | 0.666 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | MonoWhite | 0.671 | 0.657 |
| MonoWhite | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.677 | 0.646 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | MonoRed | 0.680 | 0.640 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.681 | 0.637 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | MonoWhite | 0.714 | 0.571 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | MonoWhite | 0.725 | 0.551 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.738 | 0.524 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.742 | 0.516 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | MonoWhite | 0.746 | 0.507 |
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | MonoRed | 0.747 | 0.506 |
Overall
Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.
Nash equilibria for entrants
Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).
Mean Nash win rate
Deck-only mean win rate
| Player | Win probability |
|---|---|
| P1 | 0.57 |
| P2 | 0.43 |
| Both | 0.50 |
Overall mean win rate
| Player | Win probability |
|---|---|
| P1 | 0.514 |
| P2 | 0.486 |
| Both | 0.500 |
Mean Nash pick rate
Deck-only mean pick distribution
| Deck | P1 | P2 | Both |
|---|---|---|---|
| [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood | 0.351 | 0.206 | 0.402 |
| [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse | 0.184 | 0.104 | 0.135 |
| [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire | 0.113 | 0.124 | 0.126 |
| [Future]/Necromancy/Peace | 0.081 | 0.097 | 0.102 |
| [Future/Past]/Peace | 0.042 | 0.239 | 0.101 |
| Miracle Grow | 0.094 | 0.115 | 0.068 |
| MonoWhite | 0.063 | 0.057 | 0.037 |
| MonoRed | 0.072 | 0.058 | 0.030 |
Overall mean pick distribution
| Deck | P1 | P2 | Both |
|---|---|---|---|
| FrozenStorm | 0.499 | 0.390 | 0.534 |
| zhavier | 0.269 | 0.537 | 0.428 |
| charnel_mouse | 0.071 | 0.017 | 0.024 |
| Bomber678 | 0.087 | 0.028 | 0.011 |
| codexnewb | 0.068 | 0.025 | 0.003 |
| Nekoatl | 0.000 | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| CarpeGuitarrem | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Nopethebard | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Tournament & evaluation
Plots
Evaluation for normal finished matches
| forecast | Brier score |
|---|---|
| always 5-5 | 0.250 |
| prior expected score | 0.189 |
| model | 0.172 |
| P1 | P2 | matchup | P1 wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bomber678 | Nopethebard | 0.946 | 1/1 |
| Nekoatl | Nopethebard | 0.889 | 1/1 |
| zhavier | codexnewb | 0.881 | 0/1 |
| FrozenStorm | Nekoatl | 0.867 | 1/1 |
| zhavier | Nekoatl | 0.811 | 1/1 |
| FrozenStorm | Bomber678 | 0.789 | 1/1 |
| zhavier | charnel_mouse | 0.759 | 1/1 |
| Bomber678 | CarpeGuitarrem | 0.726 | 1/1 |
| Bomber678 | codexnewb | 0.709 | 0/1 |
| charnel_mouse | codexnewb | 0.656 | 1/1 |
| Nekoatl | CarpeGuitarrem | 0.565 | 0/1 |
| FrozenStorm | zhavier | 0.518 | 1/1 |
| charnel_mouse | Bomber678 | 0.517 | 1/1 |
| codexnewb | charnel_mouse | 0.506 | 0/1 |
| zhavier | FrozenStorm | 0.464 | 1/1 |
| charnel_mouse | FrozenStorm | 0.384 | 0/1 |
| CarpeGuitarrem | charnel_mouse | 0.328 | 0/1 |
| codexnewb | FrozenStorm | 0.312 | 0/1 |
| Nopethebard | codexnewb | 0.258 | 0/1 |
| CarpeGuitarrem | zhavier | 0.208 | 0/1 |