Entrants

player deck
zhavier [Future]/Necromancy/Peace
FrozenStorm [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire
charnel_mouse [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood
codexnewb Miracle Grow
Bomber678 [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse
Nopethebard MonoWhite
CarpeGuitarrem MonoRed
Nekoatl [Future/Past]/Peace

Completed matches

round player1 player2 deck1 deck2 victor victory
1 codexnewb FrozenStorm Miracle Grow [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire FrozenStorm normal
1 zhavier Nekoatl [Future]/Necromancy/Peace [Future/Past]/Peace zhavier normal
1 Bomber678 Nopethebard [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse MonoWhite Bomber678 normal
1 CarpeGuitarrem charnel_mouse MonoRed [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood charnel_mouse normal
2 FrozenStorm zhavier [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire [Future]/Necromancy/Peace FrozenStorm normal
2 charnel_mouse Bomber678 [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse charnel_mouse normal
2 Nekoatl CarpeGuitarrem [Future/Past]/Peace MonoRed CarpeGuitarrem normal
2 Nopethebard codexnewb MonoWhite Miracle Grow codexnewb normal
3 charnel_mouse FrozenStorm [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire FrozenStorm normal
3 Bomber678 CarpeGuitarrem [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse MonoRed Bomber678 normal
3 zhavier codexnewb [Future]/Necromancy/Peace Miracle Grow codexnewb normal
3 Nekoatl Nopethebard [Future/Past]/Peace MonoWhite Nekoatl normal
4 FrozenStorm Bomber678 [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse FrozenStorm normal
4 codexnewb charnel_mouse Miracle Grow [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood charnel_mouse normal
4 CarpeGuitarrem zhavier MonoRed [Future]/Necromancy/Peace zhavier normal
5 FrozenStorm Nekoatl [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire [Future/Past]/Peace FrozenStorm normal
5 Bomber678 codexnewb [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire codexnewb normal
5 zhavier charnel_mouse [Future/Past]/Peace [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood zhavier normal
6 zhavier FrozenStorm [Future/Past]/Peace [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire zhavier normal
6 charnel_mouse codexnewb [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood Miracle Grow charnel_mouse normal

Matchup plots

Colours indicate mean matchup, using the viridis inferno palette. Vertical lines in each violin plot mark the inner quartiles. Rows are for Player 1, columns are for Player 2. (Currently not shown on mobile devices.)

Deck only

Overall

Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.

Matchup tables

Deck-only

D1 D2 matchup fairness
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.500 1.000
[Future/Past]/Peace MonoRed 0.499 0.999
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse [Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.495 0.991
MonoWhite [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.507 0.985
MonoRed [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.508 0.984
Miracle Grow [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.513 0.975
MonoRed [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.477 0.955
MonoWhite MonoRed 0.476 0.952
MonoWhite [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.526 0.947
MonoRed MonoWhite 0.471 0.943
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse MonoRed 0.535 0.931
MonoWhite [Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.459 0.918
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.452 0.904
Miracle Grow [Future/Past]/Peace 0.550 0.901
Miracle Grow [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.446 0.892
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace [Future/Past]/Peace 0.441 0.882
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace MonoRed 0.563 0.875
MonoRed [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.570 0.859
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.575 0.851
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.576 0.848
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire [Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.578 0.844
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire Miracle Grow 0.578 0.843
[Future/Past]/Peace [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.418 0.836
Miracle Grow [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.589 0.822
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse [Future/Past]/Peace 0.409 0.817
Miracle Grow MonoRed 0.593 0.815
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.404 0.808
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire [Future/Past]/Peace 0.601 0.798
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse [Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.604 0.793
MonoRed [Future/Past]/Peace 0.608 0.784
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.610 0.781
MonoWhite Miracle Grow 0.614 0.771
[Future/Past]/Peace Miracle Grow 0.617 0.766
Miracle Grow MonoWhite 0.382 0.764
MonoRed Miracle Grow 0.375 0.750
[Future/Past]/Peace [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.374 0.747
MonoWhite [Future/Past]/Peace 0.372 0.744
Miracle Grow [Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.632 0.736
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood MonoWhite 0.645 0.710
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace Miracle Grow 0.650 0.701
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood [Future/Past]/Peace 0.654 0.693
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood Miracle Grow 0.657 0.687
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood [Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.657 0.687
MonoRed [Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.658 0.684
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse Miracle Grow 0.660 0.681
[Future/Past]/Peace [Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.333 0.666
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire MonoWhite 0.671 0.657
MonoWhite [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.677 0.646
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire MonoRed 0.680 0.640
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood [Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.681 0.637
[Future/Past]/Peace MonoWhite 0.714 0.571
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace MonoWhite 0.725 0.551
[Future/Past]/Peace [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.738 0.524
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace [Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.742 0.516
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse MonoWhite 0.746 0.507
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood MonoRed 0.747 0.506

Overall

Hidden until the tournament is finished, to prevent influencing matches.

Nash equilibria for entrants

Nash equilibrium is not a good indicator of who’s most likely to win the tournament, but it’s a quick, simple heuristic to find likely contenders. Weights given are averaged over Nash equilibria calculated for each simulation sample (n = 4000).

Mean Nash win rate

Deck-only mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.57
P2 0.43
Both 0.50

Overall mean win rate

Player Win probability
P1 0.514
P2 0.486
Both 0.500

Mean Nash pick rate

Deck-only mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
[Necromancy]/Anarchy/Blood 0.351 0.206 0.402
[Discipline/Strength]/Finesse 0.184 0.104 0.135
[Necromancy]/Blood/Fire 0.113 0.124 0.126
[Future]/Necromancy/Peace 0.081 0.097 0.102
[Future/Past]/Peace 0.042 0.239 0.101
Miracle Grow 0.094 0.115 0.068
MonoWhite 0.063 0.057 0.037
MonoRed 0.072 0.058 0.030

Overall mean pick distribution

Deck P1 P2 Both
FrozenStorm 0.499 0.390 0.534
zhavier 0.269 0.537 0.428
charnel_mouse 0.071 0.017 0.024
Bomber678 0.087 0.028 0.011
codexnewb 0.068 0.025 0.003
Nekoatl 0.000 0.002 0.000
CarpeGuitarrem 0.005 0.000 0.000
Nopethebard 0.000 0.000 0.000

Tournament & evaluation

Plots

Evaluation for normal finished matches

forecast Brier score
always 5-5 0.250
prior expected score 0.189
model 0.172

P1 P2 matchup P1 wins
Bomber678 Nopethebard 0.946 1/1
Nekoatl Nopethebard 0.889 1/1
zhavier codexnewb 0.881 0/1
FrozenStorm Nekoatl 0.867 1/1
zhavier Nekoatl 0.811 1/1
FrozenStorm Bomber678 0.789 1/1
zhavier charnel_mouse 0.759 1/1
Bomber678 CarpeGuitarrem 0.726 1/1
Bomber678 codexnewb 0.709 0/1
charnel_mouse codexnewb 0.656 1/1
Nekoatl CarpeGuitarrem 0.565 0/1
FrozenStorm zhavier 0.518 1/1
charnel_mouse Bomber678 0.517 1/1
codexnewb charnel_mouse 0.506 0/1
zhavier FrozenStorm 0.464 1/1
charnel_mouse FrozenStorm 0.384 0/1
CarpeGuitarrem charnel_mouse 0.328 0/1
codexnewb FrozenStorm 0.312 0/1
Nopethebard codexnewb 0.258 0/1
CarpeGuitarrem zhavier 0.208 0/1